Media & Publishing / Growth
Propensity-to-Subscribe Score ~ (aliases: propensity model, likelihood-to-subscribe, PTS, subscriber propensity)
A model's estimate of how likely a given reader is to start paying, used to decide who sees the paywall, who gets a marketing push, and who is left alone.
The fork, why two teams get different numbers
A propensity "number" is reported two incompatible ways and used for two incompatible purposes.
In the Metric Library
- The full fork, both definitions worked all the way through
- The trap that makes the number lie, on a real export
- Every formula variant, spelled out
- The reconciliation anchor, what to tie it to and when to refuse
Reference: predictive-modeling evaluation convention e.g. calibration/AUC (reference); dynamic-paywall operating practice (no single standards body)